Adapting to climate change is just as important as mitigation now - Asif Husain-Naviatti

While much of the US and Canada was in deep freeze, the first weeks of the year brought warmer weather in Europe, largely attributed to Jet Stream effects. Commentators are already suggesting that 2023 will be globally one of the hottest on record, and possibly hotter than 2022.

Adapting to this is as important as mitigation. Mitigation refers to global efforts to ensure that mid-century average temperature increases remain well below 2C, and preferably 1.5C compared with pre-industrial averages. We are currently between 1.1C and 1.2C higher and climbing. Europe’s increase is more than twice the global average, according to the World Meteorological Organisation, posing some immediate concerns to the skiing industry and bigger concerns for more extreme weather events in the future.

We read less about adaptation. Synonymous with ensuring resilience to climate change, adaptation will be needed if the mid-century mitigation targets are missed, as many observers are now suggesting the more ambitious 1.5C will be. Future proof adjustments are already needed now to our infrastructure, services, properties and even ways of life. The norms and expectations, which recognise no targets and benchmarks, are already changing dramatically with each temperature rise.

A lack of preparedness will lead to higher repair costs and economic costs to society in the wake of weather and climate events, as well as increasing disruption and threats to individuals. This is already evident on our doorstep. But in many other parts of the world, the consequences are catastrophic, involving high loss of life and devastation to livelihoods. The Pacific Island nations, for example, are either battered with increasing frequency and severity during the annual cyclone season or disappearing altogether beneath ever rising sea levels. Around three billion people globally are dependent on changing coastal and marine ecosystems. Most of them are in the developing world.

They are simply not equipped or prepared to withstand the effects of erratic changes. At the same time, they are so much more vulnerable than we are to heightened risks and more intense effects.

According to World Bank estimates, the devastating Pakistan floods of 2022 cost Pakistan $30bn in damage and economic consequences. Reconstruction costs run to over $16bn without taking account of investments needed to assure future resilience.

Negotiators called for at least 50 per cent of international climate change financing to be devoted to adaptation in developing countries. The $100bn overall annual target appears woefully inadequate at the side of the trillions needed and itself has not yet been reached.

The UN’s annual climate conference, COP28, will be hosted by the UAE later this year, with Dr Sultan Al Jaber as President designate. As Dr Al Jaber is an oil executive, this has led to some concerns. However, the UAE is well placed to forge important links between climate, energy, economy and technology.

Both he and John Kerry, the US Special Envoy on Climate Change speaking recently at the World Economic Forum in Davos, likened the great transformation required to fight climate change and reach net-zero emissions to that of the industrial revolution. Further signalling the important contributions of economy and business leadership, Davos was used as a platform to launch a partnership between the World Economic Forum and the UAE on preparations for COP28.

These are essential parts of turning the lagging tide on implementation of mitigation policies. But important advances made on adaptation during the last two COPs in Glasgow and Sharm El Sheikh should not be forgotten. Nor is adaptation just for developing countries. As far as trends appear in Yorkshire, we may come to expect more drier spells, more flooding and hotter weather. Costs to the economy will increase as farming and food production is disrupted, businesses are affected and even our basic infrastructure stretched.

Asif Husain-Naviatti, originally from Rotherham, has over 25 years of experience at the UN, World Bank and other international organisations on sustainable development.